U.S. population will grow by 25.1 million in the next ten years starting 2008.This is a 10.7% growth rate and it is a decrease from the past twenty years.Population trends produce corresponding changes in the size and composition of the labor force.Baby boomers(55 and older) is projected to increase by 29.7%.The number of Asians and people of Hispanic origin are projected to continue to grow much faster than other racial and ethnic groups.The civilian labor force is projected to reach 166.9 million by 2018,which is a 8.2% increase.Persons of Hispanic origin are projected to increase their share of the labor force to 17.6%,a 33.1% growth.Women in the workforce will grow faster than men((9% to 7.5%)
Changes in consumer demand,improvements in technology,and many other factors will contribute to the continually changing employment structure of the U.S. economy.Employment in goods-producing industries has declined since the 1990's.Employment in mining,quarrying,oil and gas extraction is expected to decrease by 14% by 2018.Technology gains that boost productivity and environmental regulations have stagnated employment.The manufacturing sector will decline by 9% as productivity gains,automation and international competition adversely affect employment in most manufacturing industries.Pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing is expected to grow by 6% by 2018 but this increase is expected to add only 17,600 new jobs.Agriculture,forestry,fishing and hunting is expected to decline by 1%.It will decline because of the rising costs of production,increasing consolidation,and more imports of food and limber.Employment in construction is expected to rise 19%.Demand for commercial construction and an increase in road,bridge,and tunnel construction will account for the bulk of the job growth.The goods-producing industries is the place where our legislatures should use their imagination to increase employment.With revenue coming from the speculation taxes on various securities($350 billion/yr.-$1.3 trillion collected annually),the federal and state governments could stimulate the economy annually by increasing construction on schools,government buildings,roads,hospitals,bridges and tunnels.Revenue could also be used in the agriculture sector to reinvigorate distressed farms to grow low cost food products for local municipalities and create food storage facilities to provide supplies during the winter months.States could create non-profit manufacturing facilities that would produce products that the majority of citizens buy from international competitors.Mining,quarrying and oil and gas extraction can be supported with subsidies that help defray the environmental costs for production so they could hire more workers.
Service-providing industries anticipate 14.5 million new jobs by 2018.Wholesale trade workers should increase by 4%(255,900).Retail employment is expected to also increase by 4%(654,000).Transportation and warehousing is expected to increase by 10%.Information sector is expected to increase by 4%(118,100).Finance and insurance will increase 5% during this time period.Real estate,rental and leasing industry will increase by 11% as the population expands.Employment in professional,scientific,and technical services is projected to grow by 34%(2.7 million).Management of companies will increase 5%,Administrative support ,waste management and remediation services will grow by 18%.Educational services will add 1.7 million new jobs(12%).Health care and social assistance will create 26% of all new jobs created in the U.S. economy.Arts,entertainment and recreation will grow a about 15%,accommodation and food services by 7%.Finally,Government jobs will increase by 7%.The service-providing industries will provide the jobs the U.S.needs in the next ten years.We will need approximately 12 million new jobs to provide work for the growing population.
The next post will look at the types of jobs being created and review if they will provide a healthy income level for the majority of our citizens.
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